ATMO455: Numerical Weather Prediction

Fall 2006

Instructor

Dr. Fuqing Zhang, Room 1002B, O&M Bldg, 862-1580, email: fzhang@tamu.edu

Office Hours: Tuesday 2:00-4:00

TA: Shuguang Wang, Room 1002, O&M bldg, 845-1244, email: wangs@tamu.edu

Class Meets

Lectures: MW 1:50-2:40 in Room O&M 1209; Labs: F 1:50-2:40, Room 1201

Course Outline

Basic principles of computer models of the atmosphere; parameterizations; use and critical evaluation of models and model output; fundamentals of data assimilation, ensemble forecasting and atmospheric predictability.

Prerequisites: MATH 308; ATMO336 or registration therein.

Textbook

1. UCAR/COMET online training course materials and modules on NWP (http://www.meted.ucar.edu/topics_nwp.php)

2. Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability by Eugenia Kalnay, Cambridge University Press, 2003

Some NWP forecast links:

1.NCEP global and regionalforecast systems: GFS and NAM at NWS/NCO, Global ensemble, Regional ensemble

2. Hurricane forecasts: NHC, Weatherground.com, NCAR/WRF, FSUlinks CSUlinks

Grading policy

Grading: Two exams (25% each); Lab assignments (40%); Class performance (10%)

Lecture Topics

1. Introduction (1-2 week)

a. History and future of NWP (1.1-1.2)

b. NWP processes and components (1.3-1.7; COMET)

2. Fundamentals of NWP models (5-6 weeks)

a. Governing equations (2.1)

b. Vertical coordinates (2.6)

c. Brief review of numerical methods to solve PDEs (3.1-3.3)

d. Model physics and parameterizations (4.1-4.3)

e. Model type, resolution and boundary conditions

f. Introduction to operational NWP models (COMET)

3. Data assimilation (2-3 weeks)

a. Data sources and quality control (5.8)

b. Optimum interpolation (OI) and objective analysis (5.2)

c. Introduction to advanced data assimilation methods (5.4-5.6)

4. Atmospheric predictability and ensemble forecasting (2-3 weeks)

a. Introduction to atmospheric predictability (6.1)

b. Operational ensemble forecasting (6.4-6.5)

c. Error growth dynamics and limit of predictability (6.6)

Laboratory Topics

1. Familiarization with online NWP COMET modules (1 week)

2. Introduction to Matlab (2 weeks) Remember: MATLAB IS EASY!!!!!

3. Solving simple PDEs in Matlab (3 weeks)

4. Running an NWP model (2 weeks)

5. Diagnosing model output in Matlab (2 weeks)

6. Making use of online real-time NWP products (2 weeks)

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