Volume 16 Number 1.2 January 21, 2003

The week of January 13, 2003 began rather mild with temperatures ranging from the upper 50’s in the Panhandle to the upper 60’s in the Lower Valley region of Texas. After the passage of a cold frontal system on Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures dropped about 20-25 degrees, and no precipitation was experienced from this dry air mass. High pressure dominated the state on Friday and Saturday keeping temperatures rather chilly. By Sunday temperatures had moderated to about normal for the month of January.

Forecast for the Week

For the week of January 21, 2003: With an approaching cold front on Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures will be ranging from the lower 40’s in the Panhandle, lower 50’s in the Low Rolling Plains, to the 60’s 70’s and even close to 80 in Southern Texas regions. After the front passes, temperatures will remain cool with highs in the upper 30’s in the panhandle, 40’s in the Low Rolling Plains, Trans Pecos, North Central, and eastern regions, and 50’s and 60’s for the other regions of Texas through Friday. Saturday will begin a moderating trend.

(Forecast material obtained from the National Weather Service)

February 2003 Outlook:

From the Climate Prediction Center: For the Panhandle and El Paso there is an Equal Chance of temperatures being above, below, or normal for the month. There is a 0-5% greater than normal chance of below normal temperatures for the mid section of the state including Midland, San Angelo, Dallas, and most of the eastern sections of the state. There is a greater than 5% probability of below normal temperatures for the rest of the state south of the previous line mentioned including Beaumont/Port Arthur, Waco, Austin, Del Rio and all communities south of this line.

There is a 0-5% chance of above normal precipitation in the extreme northeastern corner of the state. In the region of the High Plains, and majority of the extreme eastern counties, there is a 5-10% chance of precipitation readings being above normal for the month. The Trans Pecos, Low Rolling Plains, North Central, Lower Valley, and Eastern regions can expect a 10-20% chance of above normal precipitation. The Edwards Plateau, Eastern, South Central, Upper Coast, and Southern regions of Texas have a 20% chance of precipitation readings above normal.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, there still exists a moderate El Nino, and the temperature and precipitation pattern mentioned above is consistent with an El Nino. January was not indicative of an El Nino pattern due to other atmospheric oscillations and not as much activity in the tropics usually observed with an El Nino. These oscillations are difficult to predict, and weather patterns from them are not fully understood. The above forecast is based on weather conditions that are consistent with an El Nino.

Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon (State Climatologist)

Andrew Odins (Graduate Assistant)

Kelsey Curtiss (Undergraduate Assistant)