Volume 16 Number 2.2 February 17, 2003

The week of February 10^th began on the mild side as temperatures ranged from the upper 50’s in the Panhandle to the lower 70’s in Deep Southern Texas. Moisture streamed up from the subtropical jet stream in conjunction with humidity from the Gulf of Mexico. A weak frontal passage on the 12^th moderated temperatures to highs in the 60’s for the entire state. On Friday a low pressure system in combination with the excess moisture from the jet stream triggered numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central Texas area and eastward. Temperatures were unseasonably warm with 70’s reported across the majority of the state. The passage of a dry cold front on Saturday dropped high temperatures to the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. Highs in the 40’s and 50’s were reported on Sunday.

Forecast for the Week

For the week of February 17, 2003: For the North Central region: highs will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s, with lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s, and warming to lows in the mid 40’s by Tuesday night. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the entire week. The High Plains/Low Rolling Plains regions can expect highs in the upper 40’s to lowers 50’s, and lows from the upper 20’s to lower 30’s and a slight chance of snow on Monday, and Tuesday night. High temperatures will warm into the 60’s by Thursday. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The region of the Trans Pecos will have highs in the 70’s and lows in the 40’s. The Edwards Plateau can be expected to experience highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s and lows in low 40’s. Thursday and Friday there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms. In the South Central region, highs will be in the 60’s the majority of the week, with lows in the 40’s to near 50. A chance of showers and thunderstorms exists Thursday and Friday. The Upper Coast and Southeastern regions of Texas can expect highs in the 60’s and lows in the 50’s. Thunderstorms and showers are in the forecast from Wednesday through Friday. Deep Southern Texas has a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with highs in the lower to mid 70’s, and lows in the low 60’s. Highs near 70 and lows in the mid 40’s to lower 50’s will characterize the Southern region of Texas. A chance of showers and thunderstorms exists from Tuesday through Friday.

March 2003 Outlook:

From the Climate Prediction Center, the Temperature Outlook is as follows: for the Southern, Lower Valley, and southern half of the South Central region of Texas, temperatures have a greater than 10% probability of being below normal for the month. The regions of the Edwards Plateau, southern half of North Central, Low Rolling Plains, eastern half of Trans Pecos, western half of South Central, and Upper Coast will experience a 5-10% probability of temperatures being below normal for the month of March. There is a 0-5% probability of the western Trans Pecos, High Plains, Eastern, and upper half of the North Central regions experiencing temperatures below normal for the month. For the precipitation outlook: South of a line from Amarillo to Nacogdoches has a 10% or greater probability of experiencing above normal precipitation. There is a 5-10% probability of above normal precipitation for the remainder of the state of Texas.

(Forecast material obtained from the National Weather Service)

Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon (State Climatologist)

Kelsey Curtiss (Undergraduate Assistant)