Computer Models, Page 11 of 13

Now for a quiz to see how well you can read FOUS and MOS. Below are FOUS and MOS bulletins for Buffalo, New York, issued 12Z October 28 1997. Assume it's late in the day on the 28th and you're making your forecast for the 29th. Scan them and then answer the questions that follow.

OUTPUT FROM ETA 12Z OCT 28 97        OUTPUT FROM NGM 12Z OCT 28 97
TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5    TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5
BUF//793539 -2318 152922 35029692    BUF//913929 -1018 152920 34009493
06000784444 -1416 152817 41059897    06000635044 -1617 162814 41039798
12000846344 -0814 182517 43050098    12000566462 -0714 142615 44050000
18000887354 00911 162418 44040100    18000617882 01708 132421 46070200
24004936937 -0208 172419 42050299    24000716938 00808 132621 43070198
30000894247 -1007 152516 44080297    30000664983 01010 122614 44090197
36000864757 -0508 172618 44080297    36000585883 -1311 142917 41080094
42000835054 -0610 172714 42070197    42000514985 00216 163014 41060097
48000845553 -0610 202608 42060199    48000555766 -3913 173205 41050199

BUF  EC   NGM MOS GUIDANCE  10/28/97  1200 UTC
DAY /OCT  28 /OCT  29                /OCT  30                /
HOUR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00
MN/MX                    40          54          37          54
TEMP   44 45 41 41 42 43 44 49 51 50 45 43 41 40 39 46 52 52 47
DEWPT  29 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 32 34 34 34 36
CLDS   OV OV OV OV OV OV OV SC SC BK BK SC SC SC BK SC BK BK SC
WDIR   26 26 24 23 22 23 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 25 16 19 21 20 17
WSPD   15 12 10 10 10 12 12 14 15 14 11 08 06 04 04 04 06 07 06
POP06         7     4    18    16    16     5     2     0     7
POP12                    19          22           8           7
QPF         0/    0/    0/0   0/    0/0   0/    0/0   0/    0/0
TSV06      2/ 3  2/ 1  2/ 2  1/ 0  1/ 2  1/ 0  1/ 2  1/ 0  0/ 6
TSV12            3/ 3        3/ 0        1/ 2        1/ 2
PTYPE   S  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R     R     R     R     R
POZP    8  4  5 11  7  0  1  7  4  1  0     0     2     2     3
POSN   48 36 20  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  5     8     4     0     0
SNOW        0/    0/    0/0   0/    0/0   0/    0/0   0/    0/0
CIG     5  6  7  7  6  6  6  7  5  7  6     7     7
VIS     5  5  5  5  5  5  5  5  5  5  5     5     5
OBVIS   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N     N     N

How much rain are the models forecasting, according to FOUS?
1. Neither model is forecasting precipitation.
2. The Eta model is forecasting 0.04 inches during the forecast period.
3. The NGM model is forecasting 0.20 inches during the forecast period.
4. Both models forecast large amounts of precipitation during the period. Submit your answers
  Answer will appear here.
What's the probability of measurable precipitation between 12Z Oct 29 and 00Z Oct 30, according to the NGM MOS?
1. 16%
2. 19%
3. 22%
4. 32% Submit your answers
  Answer will appear here.
What's the minimum temperature forecast for the forecast period?
1. 19
2. 37
3. 40
4. 54 Submit your answers
  Answer will appear here.
What's the forecasted temperature at the end of the forecast period?
1. 5
2. 37
3. 41
4. 54 Submit your answers
  Answer will appear here.
Is the minimum temperature being controlled by the dew point?
1. Yes, both nights.
2. Yes, the first night only.
3. Yes, the second night only.
4. No, neither night. Submit your answers
  Answer will appear here.
During the forecast period, when will it be least cloudy?
1. During the first six hours.
2. During the second six hours.
3. During the third six hours.
4. During the fourth six hours. Submit your answers
  Answer will appear here.

Questions or Comments

Technical: E-mail John Fulton < jdfult@nimbus.met.tamu.edu >
Scientific: E-mail Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon. < nielsen@ariel.met.tamu.edu >