Weather observations usually contain the following elements,
which I have listed here in alphabetical order:
- Maximum and minimum temperatures.
Again, how can you
forecast what will happen tomorrow if you don't know what happened
today?
- Precipitation.
Usually you want to know not just
whether it's raining, but how much it's raining. We will be forecasting
precipitation amounts, not just precipitation probabilities.
- Present Weather.
Usually, whether it's raining
or not is of profound importance. Since METAR reports are directed
toward pilots, "weather" in a METAR report amounts to anything which
reduces the visibility, including not just things like rain or snow,
but less exciting events like fog or blowing dust. The definition is
bent a little to include things like funnel clouds, which only affect
the visibility in certain directions.
- Pressure.
Not as important as you might think, but
useful for diagnosing frontal passages, etc.
- Station and Time.
Fundamental, but often overlooked.
- Temperature.
Of obvious importance. This is what
we'll be forecasting.
- Wind.
In a few hours, air can travel over a hundred
miles. You need to look upstream to find out what temperatures will
be like downstream. And a wind off the water can feel a lot different
from wind coming off the mountains.
There are about fifty other types of weather elements, and most of
them are essential to weather forecasting at one time or another.
I'll be describing them as we encounter them in specific examples.
Which one of these elements would you say is most important
for making a weather forecast?
As a general rule, the raw, undecoded reports are more
reliable. As a report gets decoded by computer, information
gets lost or misinterpreted. With a perfect decoder (and
perfectly coded observations), this might not be a problem,
but unfortunately, most decoders are far from perfect. So,
I'll start by showing you how to access and read the decoded
reports, and then progress to the raw reports, the ones that
REAL meteorologists read.
Questions or Comments
Technical: E-mail John Fulton < jdfult@nimbus.met.tamu.edu >
Scientific: E-mail Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon. < nielsen@ariel.met.tamu.edu >
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Texas A&M Atmospheric Sciences Department and
Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon.
All rights reserved.